A Dutch macro-economist explains the sense and nonsense behind Trump's big tariff plan. Apparently there is actually a decent plan behind it, although there might be a few gaping holes in that plan.
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A Dutch macro-economist explains the sense and nonsense behind Trump's big tariff plan. Apparently there is actually a decent plan behind it, although there might be a few gaping holes in that plan.
Martijn Vos
Als Antwort auf Martijn Vos • •Martijn Vos
Als Antwort auf Martijn Vos • •Funny details I wouldn't have expected from a hard Republican MAGA government:
Trump's Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has close ties of George Soros, was instrumental in Soros' attack on the British pound in 1992, he continued to work for Soros until 200, and in 2015 Soros invested in Bessent's headge fund. I wonder if all the irrationally Soros-hating MAGA people are aware of this.
Another thing: he's the second openly gay cabinet member (after Pete Butigieg), and the highest ranking openly gay member of the US government ever.
None of that is going to make me a fan of this guy, but it's definitely interesting, and I doubt the culture warriors are aware of it.
Isaac Kuo
Als Antwort auf Martijn Vos • • •Uh, no. There is no plan. He put tariffs on two islands populated only by penguins and a US military base.
Unless Trump is a secret genius who knows something about penguins we don't, there is no plan. Only stupidity (apparently from asking LLM AI what tariff rates to impose, and conducting no checks whatsoever other than erasing the line with Russia in it).
Martijn Vos
Als Antwort auf Isaac Kuo • •Isaac Kuo
Als Antwort auf Martijn Vos • • •Martijn Vos
Als Antwort auf Martijn Vos • •Or the influence of the smart people just isn't that big. I mean, these two guys are probably by far the smartest people in Trump's cabinet. That's not a high bar of course, and we certainly shouldn't assume they're geniuses, but they have both academic and corporate creds. And the goal of ending the neo-liberal order is probably a good one.
The problem is: they've got Trump, and Trump thinks he's smarter than anyone. And I think the tariff chaos is a stupid idea, but if the tariff chaos is indeed part of the plan, it might not matter that much what the new tariffs are, as long as there are lots of tariffs, and other countries are willing to negotiate with the US to end the tariffs.
But I think that's the gaping hole in the plan: through all the tariffs, the US is squandering trust, abdicating their central position in the world economy, and the rest of the world doesn't really need the US that much. They can still trade tariff-free with each other while ignoring the US. The plan only works if everybody absolutely needs access to the US. The plan would probably work if they did, even with the random tariffs. And there was a time when everybody needed access to the US. But I think that time has gone. Europe is just as big a market, China is getting there, and lots of other countries are attractive markets too. Maybe the US was still a more attractive market before these tariffs, but I don't think that lead is big enough that it can bear this chaos.
Isaac Kuo
Als Antwort auf Martijn Vos • • •Martijn Vos
Als Antwort auf Martijn Vos • •Sure, but there may still be a plan. Trump isn't one for planning, but many people around him do have plans, and probably manipulate him to various degrees to execute those plans.
I'm also not arguing that it's a great plan. I do think the goal of ending the neo-liberal order is a good one; it has vastly increased inequality in western countries, and created a powerful oligarchy. Although the people behind this plan are of course exactly the people who benefitted from that.
Isaac Kuo
Als Antwort auf Martijn Vos • • •It's meaningless to say there "is" a plan when that plan has no causal connection with what Trump is doing.
I can make up a plan which has no causal connection with what Trump is doing. It does not mean that Trump has a plan.
Martijn Vos
Als Antwort auf Isaac Kuo • •Are you just arguing in order to argue? Of course these people have influence on Trump. That doesn't mean Trump does exactly what they want. But that also doesn't mean he doesn't do anything they want.
Of course we can never know what they're thinking, or what they're discussing behind closed doors. That doesn't mean we can't think about it, or draw conclusions from the things we do know.
Isaac Kuo
Als Antwort auf Martijn Vos • • •Martijn Vos
Als Antwort auf Martijn Vos • •No problem. You do make good points. It's certainly no 5D chess, despite the massive scope, and I don't think the plan is well thought through. It's just that they're not simply doing random stuff; they do have goals. Even Trump. And different people in the government may have different goals; I don't believe everybody wants to end the neoliberal order, for example, but these two guys do, and certainly seem to think they have a plan. Regardless of whether it's a good one or whether Trump isable or willing to execute it.
Although as I understand it, I think Trump does, and I think it doesn't matter that much to the plan what the tariffs are exactly, as long as they hurt other countries. But I also think the plan is stupid and they overestimate the US' control over the world economy, despite the privileged position they clearly still have.